As we enter the second quarter of 2026, global stock markets remain quite volatile because of current geo-political events.
If the current Iranian, US (United States) and Israeli conflict is relatively short (a month or two) in duration with the objectives of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and changing Iranian leadership, then I expect the markets to rally as this scenario is confirmed.
If the current conflict were to continue for three to six months, then negative market volatility would persist and become more entrenched and severe. Currently, stock markets are pricing to reflect that the first scenario of a shorter conflict is the most likely outcome and therefore global sell offs are enticing investors to buy market dips, limiting the downside.
At this time, it is also my opinion the ongoing Persian Gulf conflict will be shorter in duration and once the above noted objectives are confirmed, global stock and bond markets will likely trend higher. Current global economic activity in many regions of the world is positive and showing few signs of a recession on the horizon.
Near term geo-political stability, coupled with decent economic growth and continued low interest rates in many regions of the world should provide the support global stock and bond markets require to move higher throughout 2026.
In summary, markets are predictors of outcomes over the next six to twelve months. With geo-political events currently driving the markets, uncertainty is higher than normal, but the underlying trend still supports being invested in stocks and bonds with a conservative bias.
This investment scenario could change, and I will assess what action to take if that occurs. Presently, the most likely outcome dictates being invested in stocks and bonds for higher returns, as short term interest rates, especially in Canada, have declined to levels at or below the current annual inflation rate.
If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me.
Please note: further to our February 10, 2026 “Important 2025 Tax Season Information” email, please find attached the “Tax Reference Sheet 2026”, as promised.
Best regards,
Bill Achtymichuk, CIM®, FCSI®, CFP®
Portfolio Manager / Senior Wealth Advisor
iA Private Wealth | Active Wealth Partners
Insurance Advisor| iA Private Wealth Insurance*
5470 Calgary Trail NW, Suite 202
Edmonton AB, T6H 4J8
T: 780-944-2690
F: 780-413-4497
TF: 800-474-2690