2025 Third Quarter Market Outlook
The well known saying, “markets climb a wall of worry” applies to global stock markets in 2025. The year started off with a decent rally but faded as we went into March and early April, with President Trump announcing his “Liberation Day”.
The proposed tariffs by President Trump rattled the markets early, but cooler heads prevailed, and the month of April 2025 closed mostly unchanged. Presently, the United States stock markets are around one to two percent off from their all-time highs. We continue to hear about tariffs in the news almost everyday as countries try to negotiate trade deals with the United States.
The Russia/Ukrainewar continues, and the Middle East is becoming more unstable as Israel is now in direct conflict with Iran. So, why are investors remaining relatively calm with so much global uncertainty?
Regarding tariffs, many investors feel that President Trump’s Liberation Day is a negotiation tactic, and that reasonable tariff deals will end up getting implemented. Imports are only around 14% of the US economy, so even if the tariffs end up being higher than expected, the overall impact to the US economy will not be devastating.
Concerning the global conflicts we’re experiencing, there has been no serious disruption to global energy supply so far and investors currently feel that the probability of a major oil disruption in the Middle East region is quite low, even though around 25% of the world’s energy supply flows through that region daily.
As long as investors continue to view that the concerns mentioned above will not seriously affect most global economies, investors will stay in the markets. President Trump’s personality and the concerns Idiscussed have increased stock and bond market volatility. This volatility will probably persist over the next six to twelve months and since I see stock markets rallying during that period, we will stay invested with a conservative bias.
If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me.
Best regards,
Bill Achtymichuk, CIM®, FCSI®, CFP®
Portfolio Manager / Senior Wealth Advisor
iA Private Wealth | Active Wealth Partners
Insurance Advisor| iA Private Wealth Insurance*
5470 Calgary Trail NW, Suite 202
Edmonton AB, T6H 4J8
T: 780-944-2690
F: 780-413-4497
TF: 800-474-2690
bachtymichuk@activewealthpartners.com
www.activewealthpartners.com | www.iaprivatewealth.ca
