As we enter the fourth quarter of 2026, we are historically in the weakest and often most volatile period of the calendar year for global stock markets.

So far, any market sell off has been quite limited but the geopolitical conflicts currently happening in the world have investors quite nervous.

The US (United States) economy has continued to be reasonably strong, which has helped their corporate earnings to grow more than anticipated. A strong economy, along with a low unemployment rate and volatile energy prices has helped create a potential inflation problem in the US. Time will tell how this unfolds but there is a very good chance of a one to two quarter point interest rate increase by the FED (Federal Reserve Board) before year end.

Potential interest rate increases globally is a head wind for stock markets, but strong earnings has countered that effect so far. In Canada, interest rates remain lower and stable compared to the US, because our economic growth is lower due to tariff and government policy issues.

All is not doom and gloom. I expect interest rate increases to be limited, unlike 2022 which had large interest rate increases. Another positive is that AI (Artificial Intelligence) spending is providing good economic growth, plus the technology is improving corporate efficiency.

In summary, as we move through October into November, historically the global stock markets experience a year end rally. Any interest rate increases should be modest and at times rising short term rates help stabilize and lower long term bond yields, which helps the US housing market. I expect to remain cautious in the near term but should be mostly invested going into year end.

If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me.

Best regards,

Bill Achtymichuk, CIM®, FCSI®, CFP®

Portfolio Manager / Senior Wealth Advisor
iA Private Wealth | Active Wealth Partners
Insurance Advisor| iA Private Wealth Insurance*

5470 Calgary Trail NW, Suite 202
Edmonton AB, T6H 4J8